U-M’s HAIL Scholarship increased degree attainment, quality, and lifetime earnings for low income Michigan students

The University of Michigan's High-Achieving Involved Leader (HAIL) Scholarship program increased on-time bachelors' degree attainment rates by 4%, according to research co-authored by Ford School professor Katherine Michelmore and published by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Although attending U-M is associated with greater economic mobility for low-income students, these students remain underrepresented in the university's undergraduate population. Compared with other public universities across the state, U-M has a pronounced socioeconomic imbalance—only 3% of its undergraduates come from households in the bottom income quintile, while 9% come from households in the top 1%.

To encourage high-achieving, low-income students to apply to and enroll at U-M, researchers piloted the HAIL Scholarship, which guaranteed four years of free tuition to high achieving low-income applicants upon admission. The program ran from 2016 to 2023 and served as the basis for the Go Blue Guarantee, which provides free tuition to in-state students whose families earn less than $125,000 annually. HAIL shifted the timing of financial aid guarantees—traditional financial aid programs inform students of their offer upon admission, while HAIL guaranteed financial aid to students upon application. Students, parents, and high school faculty members also received targeted outreach communicating the guarantee.

While research previously showed a positive effect on applications to and enrollment in U-M, it did not examine effects on educational and economic outcomes. The new study found that for high school graduates in 2016 and 2017, the HAIL program:

Increased enrollment at U-M Ann Arbor: Students who received the HAIL Scholarship offer were 21 percentage points more likely to enroll at a U-M campus.
Accelerated degree completion: Enrollees who received the HAIL Scholarship were 4.1 percentage points more likely to receive their bachelors' degree in four years than those who did not receive the scholarship.
Improved degree quality: HAIL students who decided to enroll at U-M because of HAIL were 56 percentage points more likely to earn bachelors' degrees from highly or most selective colleges compared to their peers who did not receive the scholarship.
Increased projected earnings: Although the researchers were unable to directly measure the post-graduate earnings of HAIL recipients, they predict that the increased degree quality associated with HAIL will increase annual earnings by 18 to 25 percent.

Michelmore and her co-authors say the HAIL Scholarship's effectiveness has implications for colleges looking to increase low-income applications and improve degree quality.

"Better information, simpler applications, and clearer aid promises can move students toward higher-quality colleges. But they cannot create more high-quality seats," the authors wrote. "HAIL reduced undermatch by reallocating access to high-quality colleges. Mobility at scale requires expanding that supply."

Michelmore's co-authors included: Elizabeth Burland (PhD ‘23), associate director of research at Harvard University's Center for Education Policy Research; Nora Delaney, doctoral student at Harvard University's Graduate School of Education; Susan Dynarski, former Ford School professor and current Patricia Albjerg Graham Professor of Education at Harvard University; CJ Libassi (MPP ‘15), senior research assistant at Columbia University's Community College Research Center; Stephanie Owen (PhD ‘21), assistant professor of economics at Colby College; Mary Quiroga (PhD ‘26), doctoral student in economics and public policy; Katherine Leu, doctoral student in sociology at the University of Michigan; and Elizabeth Salinas, doctoral student at Harvard University's Graduate School of Education.

The study, "Degrees of Mobility: Shifting Low-Income Students to Higher Quality Colleges," is the latest in a series of publications examining the HAIL Scholarship's impact on low-income students. Read past research here: